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Behavioral Operational Research - Theory, Methodology and Practice
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Behavioral Operational Research - Theory, Methodology and Practice
von: Martin Kunc, Jonathan Malpass, Leroy White
Palgrave Macmillan, 2016
ISBN: 9781137535511
412 Seiten, Download: 10148 KB
 
Format:  PDF
geeignet für: Apple iPad, Android Tablet PC's Online-Lesen PC, MAC, Laptop

Typ: B (paralleler Zugriff)

 

 
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Inhaltsverzeichnis

  Introduction to the Book 6  
  Preface 10  
  Acknowledgements 14  
  Contents 16  
  About the Editors 20  
  Notes on Contributors 22  
  List of Figures 26  
  List of Tables 30  
  Part I: Theory 32  
     1: Engaging with Behavioral Operational Research: On Methods, Actors and Praxis 33  
        1.1 Introduction 33  
        1.2 OR Methods, OR Actors, OR Praxis 36  
        1.3 An Integrative Framework to Study Behavior in OR 37  
           1.3.1 Focus on OR Methods 39  
           1.3.2 Focus on OR Actors 41  
           1.3.3 Focus on OR Praxis 42  
        1.4 Implications of a Behavioral Perspective for OR 44  
           1.4.1 Foregrounding OR Praxis in Academic Papers 44  
           1.4.2 Evaluating Impact of Diverse OR Actors 44  
           1.4.3 Developing Different Competences in OR 45  
           1.4.4 Grounding BOR Studies on Relevant Theories? 45  
        1.5 Conclusions 46  
        1 https://www.theorsociety.com/Pages/SpecialInterest/Behaviouralor.aspx. 34  
        References 47  
     2: Behavior with Models: The Role of Psychological Heuristics in Operational Research 56  
        2.1 Introduction 56  
        2.2 The Conceptual Foundation of Psychological Heuristics 58  
        2.3 Models of Psychological Heuristics 61  
        2.4 When to Use Psychological Heuristics and When Not To 65  
        2.5 Conclusions 69  
        References 70  
     3: Behavior in Models: A Framework for Representing Human Behavior 75  
        3.1 Introduction 75  
        3.2 A Framework for Modeling Human Behavior 77  
           3.2.1 Simplify (Eliminate Human Behavior by Simplification) 79  
           3.2.2 Externalize (Incorporate Human Behavior Outside of the Model) 79  
           3.2.3 Flow (Model Humans as Flows) 80  
           3.2.4 Entity (Model Human as a Machine or Material) 80  
           3.2.5 Task (Model Human Performance) 81  
           3.2.6 Individual (Model Human Behavior) 83  
        3.3 Evaluating the Framework 84  
        3.4 Conclusion 88  
        References 88  
     4: Behavior Beyond the Model 92  
        4.1 Introduction 92  
        4.2 A Philosophical and Theoretical Basis for Behavior in the Process of OR 93  
           4.2.1 Representing and Intervening 93  
        4.3 Behavior and OR Beyond the Model 95  
           4.3.1 Internalization and Externalization 96  
           4.3.2 The Individual or the Group: Procedural Rationality and Satisficing 97  
        4.4 Collective Behavior: Emergent Property for Behavior Beyond the Model 100  
        4.5 Further Understanding of the Map 102  
           4.5.1 Southeast Quadrant: Collective Efficacy 102  
           4.5.2 Northwest Quadrant: Shared Mental Models 103  
           4.5.3 Southwest Quadrant: Social Learning 104  
        4.6 Discussion and Conclusion 105  
        References 107  
  Part II: Methodology 112  
     5: Simulation and Laboratory Experiments: Exploring Self-Organizing Behavior in a Collective Choice Model 113  
        5.1 Introduction 113  
        5.2 Behavioral Models of Queues 115  
        5.3 An Agent-Based Approach 118  
        5.4 An Experimental Approach 122  
        5.5 Discussion and Conclusions 127  
        References 128  
     6: Misperception of Behavioral Operations and Bodies of Knowledge 131  
        6.1 Introduction 131  
        6.2 Misperceptions of Feedback Structure 135  
           6.2.1 Heuristics 136  
           6.2.2 Cognitive Biases 137  
           6.2.3 Motivation 138  
           6.2.4 Fundamental Attribution Error 138  
        6.3 Misperception of Feedback Dynamics 140  
           6.3.1 Study Context 140  
           6.3.2 Model Description 141  
           6.3.3 Experimental Protocol 143  
           6.3.4 Retailers’ Orders Experiment 144  
           6.3.5 Suppliers’ Capacity Experiment 145  
           6.3.6 Results 146  
              6.3.6.1 Heuristics 151  
              6.3.6.2 Heuristic Estimations 151  
        6.4 Behavioral Implications 156  
        6.5 Conclusions 157  
        References 158  
     7: Agent-Based Models and Behavioral Operational Research 162  
        7.1 Introduction 162  
        7.2 Complex Systems of Interacting Individuals 164  
           7.2.1 Complex Systems 164  
           7.2.2 Agent-Based Modeling 165  
        7.3 Introducing Behavior to Existing Modeling Techniques 168  
           7.3.1 Tipping Points from Individual Behavior: Segregation Models 169  
           7.3.2 Individualizing Systems Models: Predator–Prey Models 171  
           7.3.3 Power Laws: Forest Fire Models 174  
        7.4 A Research Agenda for Agent-Based Behavioral Operational Research 178  
           7.4.1 Which Behavioral Characteristics Matter? 179  
           7.4.2 Defining Order Parameters for Systems Where Intra-Model Behavior is Important 179  
           7.4.3 Quantized/Individual Behavior Is Important: “Agentization” of Models 179  
           7.4.4 Toy Models for Behavioral Operational Research: Agent-Based Facilitation 180  
        References 181  
     8: Modeling Behavioral Decision Making: Creation and Representation of Judgment 185  
        8.1 Introduction 185  
        8.2 Research on Judgment: Brunswikian Principles 186  
           8.2.1 Considerations on Behavioral Experiments from a Brunswikian Perspective 187  
        8.3 Modeling Behavioral Decision Making 188  
           8.3.1 Basic Process of Knowledge Creation 189  
           8.3.2 Information Selection and Its Influence on Decision Making 191  
           8.3.3 Environmental Influence on the Process of Information Selection and Its Consequence on Decision Making 196  
        8.4 Final Considerations 197  
        References 198  
     9: Big Data and Behavior in Operational Research: Towards a “Smart OR” 200  
        9.1 Introduction 200  
        9.2 Big Data and Decision Analysis 202  
        9.3 Big Data Analytics 205  
        9.4 Big Data and Behavior 206  
        9.5 Behavior and Decision-Making with Large Amounts of Data 207  
        9.6 Influencing Collective Behavior 211  
        9.7 Conclusion 213  
        References 214  
     10: Behavioral Issues in the Practical Application of Scenario Thinking: Cognitive Biases, Effective Group Facilitation and Overcoming Business-as-­Usual Thinking 217  
        10.1 Introduction 217  
        10.2 The Prevalence of Business-as-Usual Thinking in Organizations 218  
           10.2.1 Scenarios as an Antidote 221  
        10.3 The Prevalence of Heuristics and Potential Biases within Scenario Thinking 222  
        10.4 Facilitating Scenario Interventions within Organizations 226  
        10.5 Conclusions 230  
        References 231  
     11: The Impact of Group Model Building on Behavior 235  
        11.1 Introduction 235  
        11.2 Group Model Building in Practice 236  
        11.3 First Wave: Reviews of Assessment Studies 241  
        11.4 Second Wave: Participants as Recipients of Information 244  
        11.5 Third Wave: Participants as Sources of Information 250  
        11.6 Fourth Wave: Interaction Between Contributing and Receiving of Information 253  
        11.7 Conclusion 256  
        References 260  
  Part III: Practice 264  
     12: Overview: Behavioral Operational Research in Practice 265  
        12.1 Introduction 265  
        12.2 History and Developments 266  
           12.2.1 Making the Case for BOR 268  
           12.2.2 Education for BOR 268  
           12.2.3 BOR and Strategy Support 268  
        12.3 BOR in Practice 269  
           12.3.1 The Incorporation of Behavioral Factors in Models 269  
           12.3.2 Modeling of Behavior 271  
           12.3.3 Behavior Influenced by Models 272  
           12.3.4 An Outlook 275  
        12.4 Conclusion 275  
           12.4.1 Notes 277  
        References 279  
     13: Healthcare: Human Behavior in Simulation Models 282  
        13.1 Introduction 282  
           13.1.1 Context 282  
           13.1.2 Personal Perspective 283  
           13.1.3 The Need to Model Human Behavior 284  
           13.1.4 Focus of This Chapter 285  
        13.2 Simulation in Health 286  
           13.2.1 Discrete-Event Simulation 286  
           13.2.2 System Dynamics 287  
           13.2.3 Agent-Based Modeling 287  
           13.2.4 Microsimulation 288  
        13.3 Models from Health Psychology 288  
           13.3.1 The Health Belief Model 288  
           13.3.2 The Theory of Planned Behavior 289  
        13.4 Case Study 1: Screening for Diabetic Retinopathy 290  
           13.4.1 The HBM-PECS Model 291  
           13.4.2 Calculating the Probability of Attendance 292  
           13.4.3 Reflections 293  
        13.5 Case Study 2: Screening for Breast Cancer 293  
           13.5.1 The Mammography Model 293  
           13.5.2 The TPB Model 294  
           13.5.3 Baker and Atherill’s Method 295  
           13.5.4 Results 295  
           13.5.5 Sensitivity Analysis of the TPB Variables 295  
           13.5.6 Reflections 296  
        13.6 Conclusion 296  
        References 297  
     14: Service Operations: Behavioral Operational Research in British Telecommunications 300  
        14.1 Introduction 300  
           14.1.1 OR in the Telecoms Industry 301  
           14.1.2 A Brief History of BT 302  
           14.1.3 Behavioral OR in BT 303  
        14.2 Methodology for Behavioral Studies 303  
        14.3 Behavioral OR in BT 307  
           14.3.1 Managing the Workforce 307  
           14.3.2 Workforce Optimization 309  
           14.3.3 Issues in Forecasting 310  
           14.3.4 Issues in Planning 311  
           14.3.5 Issues in Scheduling 313  
           14.3.6 Issues in Rostering 314  
           14.3.7 Understanding Customer Behavior 315  
        14.4 Conclusions 316  
        References 317  
     15: Smart Cities: Big Data and Behavioral Operational Research 322  
        15.1 Introduction 322  
        15.2 Context for SMART OR 323  
           15.2.1 CASE 1: The STEEP Project 323  
           15.2.2 CASE 2: The Future City Demonstrator: Big Open Data in the SMART City Ecosystem 327  
           15.2.3 CASE 3: The City Dashboard: Co-creating Visual Interfaces 329  
        15.3 Discussion and Conclusion 331  
        References 334  
     16: Mergers and Acquisitions: Modeling Decision Making in Integration Projects 338  
        16.1 Introduction 338  
        16.2 How to Model Behavior: Illustrative Model of an M&A Integration Project 340  
           16.2.1 Typical Patterns of Behavior 340  
           16.2.2 Feedback Structure 343  
        16.3 How Models Behave: Simulation Experiments 350  
        16.4 Discussion 353  
        References 354  
     17: Supporting Strategy: Behavioral Influences on Resource Conceptualization Processes 356  
        17.1 Introduction 356  
        17.2 The Role of Group Decision Making Processes During the Development of Strategies Using Strategic Resources 357  
        17.3 Observational Study 359  
           17.3.1 Operationalization of the Group Behavioral Dynamic Process 360  
        17.4 Results 361  
           17.4.1 Quantitative Analysis of the Group Behavioral Dynamic Process 361  
           17.4.2 Qualitative Analysis of the Group Behavioral Dynamic Process 362  
              17.4.2.1 Group A: Incremental and Causal Linkage-Oriented Resource Conceptualization Process 362  
              17.4.2.2 Group B: Divergent and Individual Resources-­Oriented Process 364  
        17.5 Discussion 367  
           17.5.1 Level of Deliberateness 368  
           17.5.2 Information Overload Experienced in Group Behavior 369  
           17.5.3 Intra-Group Conflicts 369  
        17.6 Conclusion 370  
        References 372  
  Part IV: Future Directions 376  
     18: The Past, Present and Futures of Behavioral Operational Research 377  
        18.1 Introduction 377  
           18.1.1 An Alarming Tale 378  
        18.2 Behavioral OR in the Past 381  
           18.2.1 The Early Years 381  
           18.2.2 The Post-war Period 382  
           18.2.3 Heading for the Turn of the Century 383  
           18.2.4 Two Areas of Behavioral Strength: Decision Analysis and System Dynamics 385  
        18.3 Behavioral OR Today 387  
           18.3.1 Developments in “Real World” Economics and Psychology 388  
           18.3.2 Emerging Insights about Complexity and Increasing Ability to Model It 390  
           18.3.3 Developments in Communicating with Clients 391  
        18.4 Possible Futures for Behavioral OR 391  
           18.4.1 Where Now for Behavioral OR? 391  
           18.4.2 The Johari Window of OR 393  
           18.4.3 A Few Last Words 395  
        References 396  
  Index 400  


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