Introduction to the Book	6
	Preface	10
	Acknowledgements	14
	Contents	16
	About the Editors	20
	Notes on Contributors	22
	List of Figures	26
	List of Tables	30
	Part I: Theory	32
	1: Engaging with Behavioral Operational Research: On Methods, Actors and Praxis	33
	1.1 Introduction	33
	1.2 OR Methods, OR Actors, OR Praxis	36
	1.3 An Integrative Framework to Study Behavior in OR	37
	1.3.1 Focus on OR Methods	39
	1.3.2 Focus on OR Actors	41
	1.3.3 Focus on OR Praxis	42
	1.4 Implications of a Behavioral Perspective for OR	44
	1.4.1 Foregrounding OR Praxis in Academic Papers	44
	1.4.2 Evaluating Impact of Diverse OR Actors	44
	1.4.3 Developing Different Competences in OR	45
	1.4.4 Grounding BOR Studies on Relevant Theories?	45
	1.5 Conclusions	46
	1 https://www.theorsociety.com/Pages/SpecialInterest/Behaviouralor.aspx.	34
	References	47
	2: Behavior with Models: The Role of Psychological Heuristics in Operational Research	56
	2.1 Introduction	56
	2.2 The Conceptual Foundation of Psychological Heuristics	58
	2.3 Models of Psychological Heuristics	61
	2.4 When to Use Psychological Heuristics and When Not To	65
	2.5 Conclusions	69
	References	70
	3: Behavior in Models: A Framework for Representing Human Behavior	75
	3.1 Introduction	75
	3.2 A Framework for Modeling Human Behavior	77
	3.2.1 Simplify (Eliminate Human Behavior by Simplification)	79
	3.2.2 Externalize (Incorporate Human Behavior Outside of the Model)	79
	3.2.3 Flow (Model Humans as Flows)	80
	3.2.4 Entity (Model Human as a Machine or Material)	80
	3.2.5 Task (Model Human Performance)	81
	3.2.6 Individual (Model Human Behavior)	83
	3.3 Evaluating the Framework	84
	3.4 Conclusion	88
	References	88
	4: Behavior Beyond the Model	92
	4.1 Introduction	92
	4.2 A Philosophical and Theoretical Basis for Behavior in the Process of OR	93
	4.2.1 Representing and Intervening	93
	4.3 Behavior and OR Beyond the Model	95
	4.3.1 Internalization and Externalization	96
	4.3.2 The Individual or the Group: Procedural Rationality and Satisficing	97
	4.4 Collective Behavior: Emergent Property for Behavior Beyond the Model	100
	4.5 Further Understanding of the Map	102
	4.5.1 Southeast Quadrant: Collective Efficacy	102
	4.5.2 Northwest Quadrant: Shared Mental Models	103
	4.5.3 Southwest Quadrant: Social Learning	104
	4.6 Discussion and Conclusion	105
	References	107
	Part II: Methodology	112
	5: Simulation and Laboratory Experiments: Exploring Self-Organizing Behavior in a Collective Choice Model	113
	5.1 Introduction	113
	5.2 Behavioral Models of Queues	115
	5.3 An Agent-Based Approach	118
	5.4 An Experimental Approach	122
	5.5 Discussion and Conclusions	127
	References	128
	6: Misperception of Behavioral Operations and Bodies of Knowledge	131
	6.1 Introduction	131
	6.2 Misperceptions of Feedback Structure	135
	6.2.1 Heuristics	136
	6.2.2 Cognitive Biases	137
	6.2.3 Motivation	138
	6.2.4 Fundamental Attribution Error	138
	6.3 Misperception of Feedback Dynamics	140
	6.3.1 Study Context	140
	6.3.2 Model Description	141
	6.3.3 Experimental Protocol	143
	6.3.4 Retailers’ Orders Experiment	144
	6.3.5 Suppliers’ Capacity Experiment	145
	6.3.6 Results	146
	6.3.6.1 Heuristics	151
	6.3.6.2 Heuristic Estimations	151
	6.4 Behavioral Implications	156
	6.5 Conclusions	157
	References	158
	7: Agent-Based Models and Behavioral Operational Research	162
	7.1 Introduction	162
	7.2 Complex Systems of Interacting Individuals	164
	7.2.1 Complex Systems	164
	7.2.2 Agent-Based Modeling	165
	7.3 Introducing Behavior to Existing Modeling Techniques	168
	7.3.1 Tipping Points from Individual Behavior: Segregation Models	169
	7.3.2 Individualizing Systems Models: Predator–Prey Models	171
	7.3.3 Power Laws: Forest Fire Models	174
	7.4 A Research Agenda for Agent-Based Behavioral Operational Research	178
	7.4.1 Which Behavioral Characteristics Matter?	179
	7.4.2 Defining Order Parameters for Systems Where Intra-Model Behavior is Important	179
	7.4.3 Quantized/Individual Behavior Is Important: “Agentization” of Models	179
	7.4.4 Toy Models for Behavioral Operational Research: Agent-Based Facilitation	180
	References	181
	8: Modeling Behavioral Decision Making: Creation and Representation of Judgment	185
	8.1 Introduction	185
	8.2 Research on Judgment: Brunswikian Principles	186
	8.2.1 Considerations on Behavioral Experiments from a Brunswikian Perspective	187
	8.3 Modeling Behavioral Decision Making	188
	8.3.1 Basic Process of Knowledge Creation	189
	8.3.2 Information Selection and Its Influence on Decision Making	191
	8.3.3 Environmental Influence on the Process of Information Selection and Its Consequence on Decision Making	196
	8.4 Final Considerations	197
	References	198
	9: Big Data and Behavior in Operational Research: Towards a “Smart OR”	200
	9.1 Introduction	200
	9.2 Big Data and Decision Analysis	202
	9.3 Big Data Analytics	205
	9.4 Big Data and Behavior	206
	9.5 Behavior and Decision-Making with Large Amounts of Data	207
	9.6 Influencing Collective Behavior	211
	9.7 Conclusion	213
	References	214
	10: Behavioral Issues in the Practical Application of Scenario Thinking: Cognitive Biases, Effective Group Facilitation and Overcoming Business-as-­Usual Thinking	217
	10.1 Introduction	217
	10.2 The Prevalence of Business-as-Usual Thinking in Organizations	218
	10.2.1 Scenarios as an Antidote	221
	10.3 The Prevalence of Heuristics and Potential Biases within Scenario Thinking	222
	10.4 Facilitating Scenario Interventions within Organizations	226
	10.5 Conclusions	230
	References	231
	11: The Impact of Group Model Building on Behavior	235
	11.1 Introduction	235
	11.2 Group Model Building in Practice	236
	11.3 First Wave: Reviews of Assessment Studies	241
	11.4 Second Wave: Participants as Recipients of Information	244
	11.5 Third Wave: Participants as Sources of Information	250
	11.6 Fourth Wave: Interaction Between Contributing and Receiving of Information	253
	11.7 Conclusion	256
	References	260
	Part III: Practice	264
	12: Overview: Behavioral Operational Research in Practice	265
	12.1 Introduction	265
	12.2 History and Developments	266
	12.2.1 Making the Case for BOR	268
	12.2.2 Education for BOR	268
	12.2.3 BOR and Strategy Support	268
	12.3 BOR in Practice	269
	12.3.1 The Incorporation of Behavioral Factors in Models	269
	12.3.2 Modeling of Behavior	271
	12.3.3 Behavior Influenced by Models	272
	12.3.4 An Outlook	275
	12.4 Conclusion	275
	12.4.1 Notes	277
	References	279
	13: Healthcare: Human Behavior in Simulation Models	282
	13.1 Introduction	282
	13.1.1 Context	282
	13.1.2 Personal Perspective	283
	13.1.3 The Need to Model Human Behavior	284
	13.1.4 Focus of This Chapter	285
	13.2 Simulation in Health	286
	13.2.1 Discrete-Event Simulation	286
	13.2.2 System Dynamics	287
	13.2.3 Agent-Based Modeling	287
	13.2.4 Microsimulation	288
	13.3 Models from Health Psychology	288
	13.3.1 The Health Belief Model	288
	13.3.2 The Theory of Planned Behavior	289
	13.4 Case Study 1: Screening for Diabetic Retinopathy	290
	13.4.1 The HBM-PECS Model	291
	13.4.2 Calculating the Probability of Attendance	292
	13.4.3 Reflections	293
	13.5 Case Study 2: Screening for Breast Cancer	293
	13.5.1 The Mammography Model	293
	13.5.2 The TPB Model	294
	13.5.3 Baker and Atherill’s Method	295
	13.5.4 Results	295
	13.5.5 Sensitivity Analysis of the TPB Variables	295
	13.5.6 Reflections	296
	13.6 Conclusion	296
	References	297
	14: Service Operations: Behavioral Operational Research in British Telecommunications	300
	14.1 Introduction	300
	14.1.1 OR in the Telecoms Industry	301
	14.1.2 A Brief History of BT	302
	14.1.3 Behavioral OR in BT	303
	14.2 Methodology for Behavioral Studies	303
	14.3 Behavioral OR in BT	307
	14.3.1 Managing the Workforce	307
	14.3.2 Workforce Optimization	309
	14.3.3 Issues in Forecasting	310
	14.3.4 Issues in Planning	311
	14.3.5 Issues in Scheduling	313
	14.3.6 Issues in Rostering	314
	14.3.7 Understanding Customer Behavior	315
	14.4 Conclusions	316
	References	317
	15: Smart Cities: Big Data and Behavioral Operational Research	322
	15.1 Introduction	322
	15.2 Context for SMART OR	323
	15.2.1 CASE 1: The STEEP Project	323
	15.2.2 CASE 2: The Future City Demonstrator: Big Open Data in the SMART City Ecosystem	327
	15.2.3 CASE 3: The City Dashboard: Co-creating Visual Interfaces	329
	15.3 Discussion and Conclusion	331
	References	334
	16: Mergers and Acquisitions: Modeling Decision Making in Integration Projects	338
	16.1 Introduction	338
	16.2 How to Model Behavior: Illustrative Model of an M&A Integration Project	340
	16.2.1 Typical Patterns of Behavior	340
	16.2.2 Feedback Structure	343
	16.3 How Models Behave: Simulation Experiments	350
	16.4 Discussion	353
	References	354
	17: Supporting Strategy: Behavioral Influences on Resource Conceptualization Processes	356
	17.1 Introduction	356
	17.2 The Role of Group Decision Making Processes During the Development of Strategies Using Strategic Resources	357
	17.3 Observational Study	359
	17.3.1 Operationalization of the Group Behavioral Dynamic Process	360
	17.4 Results	361
	17.4.1 Quantitative Analysis of the Group Behavioral Dynamic Process	361
	17.4.2 Qualitative Analysis of the Group Behavioral Dynamic Process	362
	17.4.2.1 Group A: Incremental and Causal Linkage-Oriented Resource Conceptualization Process	362
	17.4.2.2 Group B: Divergent and Individual Resources-­Oriented Process	364
	17.5 Discussion	367
	17.5.1 Level of Deliberateness	368
	17.5.2 Information Overload Experienced in Group Behavior	369
	17.5.3 Intra-Group Conflicts	369
	17.6 Conclusion	370
	References	372
	Part IV: Future Directions	376
	18: The Past, Present and Futures of Behavioral Operational Research	377
	18.1 Introduction	377
	18.1.1 An Alarming Tale	378
	18.2 Behavioral OR in the Past	381
	18.2.1 The Early Years	381
	18.2.2 The Post-war Period	382
	18.2.3 Heading for the Turn of the Century	383
	18.2.4 Two Areas of Behavioral Strength: Decision Analysis and System Dynamics	385
	18.3 Behavioral OR Today	387
	18.3.1 Developments in “Real World” Economics and Psychology	388
	18.3.2 Emerging Insights about Complexity and Increasing Ability to Model It	390
	18.3.3 Developments in Communicating with Clients	391
	18.4 Possible Futures for Behavioral OR	391
	18.4.1 Where Now for Behavioral OR?	391
	18.4.2 The Johari Window of OR	393
	18.4.3 A Few Last Words	395
	References	396
	Index	400